tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7126131564610858851.post2849217713455774310..comments2023-09-09T10:21:32.853-04:00Comments on The Hackensack: Stratfor's Outlook for the Third QuarterDaveinHackensackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01313169814904229272noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7126131564610858851.post-85108964916829476522008-07-13T20:09:00.000-04:002008-07-13T20:09:00.000-04:00The comment below is from the InvestingSpeculator:...The comment below is from the InvestingSpeculator:<BR/><BR/>A couple things. I disagree that the middle east will have peace. While I think stability is coming to Iraq, I think as a whole there will be instability in a world of declining oil reserves-the middle east will be the most unstable place in the world for the next two decades. Next, with China problems, I think they will move towards total stability-I think they have the best financial foundation in the world and with the pull back are the best investment in the world.<BR/>wwww.theinvestingspeculator.comDaveinHackensackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01313169814904229272noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7126131564610858851.post-31308565571136817522008-07-13T17:49:00.000-04:002008-07-13T17:49:00.000-04:00Let me 'revise and extend' my previous comment, as...Let me 'revise and extend' my previous comment, as they say in D.C. Heebner may know more than you about those Brazilian banks, but I'd bet he probably knows less about them than Richard Pzena knows about Fannie Mae. This is a counterpoint to the Edelheit post I quoted earlier. In this case, Pzena's fundamental analysis has been trumped (at least so far) by being on the wrong end of a macro trend.DaveinHackensackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01313169814904229272noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7126131564610858851.post-14353108854504987392008-07-13T14:33:00.000-04:002008-07-13T14:33:00.000-04:00Just passing along Stratfor's outlook and analysis...Just passing along Stratfor's outlook and analysis here. Regarding Israel, they note that the U.S. isn't much involved in the Israel-Syria negotiations: Turkey is brokering them. One thing I forgot to highlight in my post: Stratfor says that the Saudis have been using some of their windfall oil profits to bribe Iraqi Sunnis into participating in the government there and otherwise trying to lower the temperature a bit. <BR/><BR/>Regarding Heebner and ITU and BBD, I doubt Heebner understands those banks much more than you do. He made a point in that recent Fortune interview that after he identifies the macro trends (I think he used different terminology though), it only takes him about 10 minutes to analyze a stock. The banking business tends to be pro-cyclical, and Brazil's economy has some impressive macro trend tailwinds behind it: its exports are benefiting from the secular bull market in commodities (mainly Ag and metals); it's energy independent, etc. And ITU and BBD are the two biggest banks in the country, so you'd figure they'll benefit from the growth of the Brazilian economy.DaveinHackensackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01313169814904229272noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7126131564610858851.post-43549348864332883572008-07-13T05:52:00.000-04:002008-07-13T05:52:00.000-04:00I'm going to go ahead and say "include me out" on ...I'm going to go ahead and say "include me out" on agreeing with peace in the Middle East. <BR/><BR/>It would be nice--but not if it comes at the betrayal of Israel by America or the non-existence of it (which is the only peace that sadly too many fanatics would be willing to accept).<BR/><BR/>Mentioned it before, I'll say it again too: Heebner likes the Brazilian banks ITU and BBD. If I had to own financials, those would be the ones I'd own. But I don't really understand them well enough for myself so I have to pass for now...Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02901678973251321027noreply@blogger.com