tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7126131564610858851.post4856581602195773031..comments2023-09-09T10:21:32.853-04:00Comments on The Hackensack: A Thought-Provoking Post by Aaron EdelheitDaveinHackensackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01313169814904229272noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7126131564610858851.post-91005702336990712702008-07-14T16:04:00.000-04:002008-07-14T16:04:00.000-04:00That "click to read more" feature is a good sugges...That "click to read more" feature is a good suggestion, particularly for long posts such as the Stratfor one. Let me see if I can figure out how to do that...DaveinHackensackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01313169814904229272noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7126131564610858851.post-34825919393931650332008-07-14T14:18:00.000-04:002008-07-14T14:18:00.000-04:00Yes and that fact makes it a rare gem of an OTCBB ...Yes and that fact makes it a rare gem of an OTCBB company. Even the good ones typically hang aroung the OTCBB for a little while getting private placements etc before graduating to a senior exchange (like AOB for example). <BR/><BR/>So its refreshing to get one like an AYSI or BOBS that doesnt dilute.<BR/>To see how even the big board foreign stocks dilute to fund growth, just check out how Tata Motors (TTM) funded their ill-advised Land Rover purchase. Investors weren't too happy with that deal. Incidently I think TTM is a good value now, but investors who bought at a fair valuation of 15 bucks sure aren't too happy. The institutions really dumped on that news.<BR/><BR/>P.S. Dave, just a thought: Have you considered on the front page of your blog, putting a summary of the entry with a "click-to-view-more" hyperlink to an expanded view that shows the whole post? That way it would be easier as a reader to navigate, identify, and pick the entries, IMO. There would also be more entries on the front page to view, making it less likely entries get missed or skipped over. Just a suggestion. Great blog either way!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7126131564610858851.post-46107368885510737802008-07-14T13:13:00.000-04:002008-07-14T13:13:00.000-04:00Thanks for that informative comment, John. Good po...Thanks for that informative comment, John. Good point about the indexes too. <BR/><BR/>Regarding dilution, one of the things I like about Alloy Steel is that there hasn't been any dilution yet.DaveinHackensackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01313169814904229272noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7126131564610858851.post-45701126028698687572008-07-14T09:21:00.000-04:002008-07-14T09:21:00.000-04:00Some of my best performing stocks have been with C...Some of my best performing stocks have been with Chinese companies. With the chinese market down the way it is, I think a lot of Chinese ADR's present good values. I'm not a fan of comparing broad indexes to determine what investments "work" (value vs. growth, large cap vs small cap, china index etc) since what individual companies you actually buy at a certain price determines your returns, there can be more or less junk in any broad index.<BR/><BR/>With that said, I doubt I'd ever consider a Chinese stock a "buy and hold forever" investment. I've become quite concerned with how management of Chinese companies views their shareholders. Not just Chinese mangaement, but emerging market managements in general. They always seem to jump for dilution to fund all expansion, and the awarding of stock options gets pretty crazy too. Their view of the capital markets frequently seems to be one of a giant free money printing press. <BR/><BR/>IMO, Chinese/India stocks are good holdings for the 1-3 year timeframe where you can find value...but I wouldn't buy them for your retirement plan. The Chinese companies I own now are poised to benefit for years to come from some under-recognized macro trends in China (western-style pharma, water shortage, natural gas vehicular fuel) so I'm not too worried about the negative headwinds facing the country as my companies would benefit. A good way to play it is to find a small under-reported growth company, look at its plans for growth, and sell when it reaches a good % of their planned growth. For example SinoEnergy has a nat gas contract with PetroChina that would enable them to run 150 nat gas stations-The plan for me is to sell when they reach maybe 120 or so stations, unless we become grossly overvalued along the way. <BR/><BR/>Thanks for the link to the Edelheit blog, there is some interesting stuff in there. Reading about his time in Israel and Torah/Kaballah studies was interesting. Funny how simple contradictions become thought provoking koans if you assume inerrancy. The human mind is quite imaginative.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7126131564610858851.post-18556855535538220882008-07-13T19:36:00.000-04:002008-07-13T19:36:00.000-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.DaveinHackensackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01313169814904229272noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7126131564610858851.post-15585297506778235382008-07-13T18:41:00.000-04:002008-07-13T18:41:00.000-04:00I generally agree with you, particularly about the...I generally agree with you, particularly about the sweet spot when you find an inexpensive company that nevertheless has a strong macro trend tailwind behind it. HEM fits this, and I think, in a sense, AYSI is the HEM of the mining industry. Both are positioned to benefit from the growth of China as well.DaveinHackensackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01313169814904229272noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7126131564610858851.post-45653646163405637962008-07-13T05:26:00.000-04:002008-07-13T05:26:00.000-04:00Don Coxe's investing mantra for many years has bee...Don Coxe's investing mantra for many years has been to avoid the companies that compete with China and gain exposure to those that make what the country needs but can't produce (enough of).<BR/><BR/>This led him to the field of commodities. And the mantra there has been to own "long-life reserves in politically secure portions of the world."<BR/><BR/>I think both of these theses are still valid, but they're also a bit harder to play--as the commodities bull market is farther along, more people are aware of it (so you're paying more for value) and political risk has increased--everywhere. <BR/><BR/>Thanks again for the Edelheit blog link! I agree with him on this one that the macro trend isn't an end-all. In fact, especially with China, if you're bullish on the currency, there's a lot of companies you don't want to own there.<BR/><BR/>When the macro trend is strongly bullish, however, while companies within that area are priced cheaply (such as Hemisphere GPS), chances of success are highDanielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02901678973251321027noreply@blogger.com