tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7126131564610858851.post7831212535391417690..comments2023-09-09T10:21:32.853-04:00Comments on The Hackensack: Stocks for the (Very) Long RunDaveinHackensackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01313169814904229272noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7126131564610858851.post-79402355262241942009-03-07T22:45:00.000-05:002009-03-07T22:45:00.000-05:00It was noted somewhere today that if stocks merely...It was noted somewhere today that if stocks merely go back to where they were on December 31st we'd see > 30% returns from last week's close.<BR/><BR/>That type of move is highly likely before year-end 2009 whether or not we're actually ready for the long term turn.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7126131564610858851.post-65658000719156120622009-03-07T22:26:00.000-05:002009-03-07T22:26:00.000-05:00"The only question that needs to be answered now i...<I>"The only question that needs to be answered now is what assets will give you the best total return from today onward."</I><BR/><BR/>That's a good point, Paul. <BR/><BR/>Worth quoting more from Auther's column here:<BR/><BR/><I>"Playing the market at this point is more about predicting the actions of other investors than about placing a value on companies. How will investors react to this fall?<BR/><BR/>Confidence in stocks is likely to have been shaken, as the realisation takes hold that bonds have beaten stocks over four decades.<BR/><BR/>Add to this the weight of demographics. Those who started saving in 1969 were in the early years of the baby boom generation. They have only a few years left to retirement, and suddenly have far less wealth set aside for it than they had thought. That will mean saving more, and it is likely that a big chunk of that money will go to bonds rather than stocks.<BR/><BR/>Once they retire, they will have to sell many of their securities. The generation that has been let down by the cult of the equity may have little choice but to ensure, by their actions, that equities take a long time to recover."</I>DaveinHackensackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01313169814904229272noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7126131564610858851.post-51380642859280190132009-03-07T22:02:00.000-05:002009-03-07T22:02:00.000-05:00How long it may take to get back to the old highs ...How long it may take to get back to the old highs is irrelevant.<BR/><BR/>The only question that needs to be answered now is what assets will give you the best total return from today onward.<BR/><BR/>A 50% move up from Friday's close would still leave the averages about 25% under their old highs but would be a very nice (+50%) return from today's level.<BR/><BR/>Switching to bonds or t-bills now would be like using birth control after you've found out you're already pregnant.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com