Saturday, December 5, 2009

The second draft of history

In yesterday's New York Times, Stephen Holden reviewed a new movie called Serious Moonlight, the screenplay of which was written by the late Adrienne Shelly. About her murder, Holden wrote,

Three years ago Ms. Shelly, who was 40, was killed in her New York apartment by a construction worker bent on robbery


That wasn't the story I remembered, so I did a three second search, and came up with this contemporaneous account of the crime from Gothamist, which includes a quote from the New York Times:

Yesterday, the police announced that the death of actress-director Adrienne Shelly was murder, not suicide. Shelly's husband had found her body hanging from a shower rod in the Greenwich Village apartment she used as an office last week, leading the police to initially suspect she committed suicide. But they did find an unknown shoeprint in the bathroom, and the shoeprint turned out to belong to a construction worker doing renovations on a downstairs apartment

Diego Pillco, an Ecuadorean immigrant, was confronted by Shelly about the noise he was making. They apparently got into a physical fight where Shelly slapped him and Pillco punched her unconscious. Worried that he would be deported, he dragged her body back to her apartment and staged the hanging. From the NY Times:

Detectives from the Sixth Precinct in Greenwich Village were particularly troubled by an unexplained footprint found in the bathroom. They examined the shoes of everyone who had entered the apartment, including police officers and emergency workers, but found no match for the print.

They canvassed the building, and found that renovation work was under way in some apartments. The detectives matched the footprint from Ms. Shelly’s bathroom to one they found at one of the work sites, and then used the match to track down Mr. Pillco, the authorities said.

Newsday reports that Pillco was 5 feet, to Shelly's 5 feet 2, and "had trouble trying to situate her body to fit a suicide scenario, so he had to step on the toilet, leaving behind the sneaker print."

Pillco, not seen at the 15 Abingdon Square building since the killing, was arrested at his Brooklyn apartment and charged with second degree murder. He confessed to the police, "I was having a bad day. I didn't mean to kill her. But I did kill her." The ME's office is still looking into the cause of death (from the punch or the hanging).

Shelly's family was doubtful she would kill herself, and husband Andrew Ostroy said, "We are incredibly grateful to the New York City Police Department for their dedication, professionalism and tenacity in following up on every lead in this case. We hope everyone will respect that this is a difficult and private time for our families."


Update: Commenter "frailingminda" on Ta-Nehisi Coates's Atlantic blog brought this New York Times article to my attention: "In Guilty Plea, Actress’s Killer Changes Story to Robbery". Excerpt:

His original confession had the ring of truth: He was an illegal immigrant working on a renovation job in a Greenwich Village building when the imperious woman upstairs confronted him over construction noise.

They argued. She scratched him. Panicked that she would call the police and that he would be deported, he punched her and pushed her to the floor. Mistakenly thinking he had killed her, he hanged her from the shower rod of her bathroom, in a staged suicide.

But in a courtroom on Thursday, the construction worker, Diego Pillco, 20, told a very different story of how he killed the woman, Adrienne Shelly, a filmmaker, on Nov. 1, 2006. Ms. Shelly, who was 40 and the mother of a 3-year-old daughter, had just finished a film, “Waitress,” which opened to warm reviews after her death.

Mr. Pillco, a short, boyish-looking man, speaking softly through a Spanish translator, told a judge in State Supreme Court in Manhattan that the argument had not been over noise, but over a robbery.

He told the judge that Ms. Shelly had caught him stealing money from her purse after he had slipped into the apartment at 15 Abingdon Square that she used as an office.

When she picked up the phone to call the police, he said, he grabbed it and covered her mouth as she started to scream.

“When she fell to the floor I saw a sheet and decided to choke her, and that’s what happened,” Mr. Pillco said.

The judge, Carol Berkman, prodded him: “And you tied a sheet around her neck and strung her up?”

“Yes,” Mr. Pillco replied, “and I made it look as if she committed suicide on her own.”


So, long story short: Stephen Holden's original description of the murder was correct. I stand corrected.

Friday, December 4, 2009

How not to negotiate

Don't ask "what's your budget?". That's a spectacularly unsubtle way of asking what's the most you can shake someone for your product or service. A potential vendor asked me that a couple of days ago, and after that inauspicious beginning to our correspondence, he doesn't have my business and I don't want to deal with him.

Say what you think your product or service is worth, and justify it. Then we can negotiate and come to a price we both think is fair. It's not just about the money. The amount I'm up on my little anti-gold bet today is probably more than what that vendor was fishing for. There are enough a-holes in the world. You can differentiate yourself by not being one.

The best game by an RB in Giants Stadium this year?

Could have been the performance by Ramsey high school's senior halfback Zach Donnarumma, who had 25 carries for 266 yards and 4 TDs in Ramsey's win over River Dell in last night's North Jersey, Section 1, Group 2 state championship which was held at Giants Stadium. I wouldn't have known about if I hadn't ran out to Sonic around 11:30pm last night, and heard a bunch of ecstatic kids celebrating some sort of victory. Out of curiosity, I checked out NJ.com when I got home to find out what all the excitement was about. Here's the Record's highlight clip from the game:
Ramsey beats River Dell to win North 1 Group 2 NJ HS football final






A little more Alloy Steel



Picked up a few more shares of Alloy Steel International (AYSI.OB) today at $2.27 when my limit order hit. I had been trying to pick up a little more at that price for a couple of months.

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Buying a lottery ticket to bet against gold

I've mentioned the pseudonymous GuruFocus commenter Buffetteer17 before, noting that he is probably the savviest and most numerate of the commenters on that site. There's a lot more chaff than wheat on GuruFocus, but I usually read Buffetteer's posts with interest. He wrote this in a GuruFocus comment thread today:

According to the Sornette bubble detector formula, the gold price bubble is nearing a critical point, meaning there's likely to be a large correction in the next few weeks. I applied the formula to GLD price history going back to March and got several high quality fits, with an R-squared in the range of 92-94%. You can clearly see the faster-than-exponential price rise on a log price plot. The critical dates range from 11/27 to 12/4. I bought a few Dec 09 and Jan 10 put options on GLD as a lottery ticket.


At this point, a commenter mentioned the devaluation of the dollar as the cause of the spike in gold prices. Buffetteer's response:

Gold prices in dollars are going up super-exponentially, way too much to be explained by dollar devaluation. Maybe dollar weakness is an underlying cause, but the gold price is now disconnected from that. We're seeing herding behavior. The motivation seems to be buy gold because other people are buying it and the price is increasing.


As I noted in my own comment on that thread,

I had a related exchange with Aaron Edelheit, after he wrote a post saying people should get out of cash because of dollar weakness. My guess is that when we get the inevitable stock market correction, the dollar will rise as it did last time, and gold will drop. The longer term trends might be different, but that seems like the most likely near term scenario.


I piggybacked on Buffetteer17's idea here and picked up a handful of Jan 10 puts on GLD today.

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Out of Destiny

Sold out of Destiny Media (OTC BB: DSNY.OB)@ $0.45 today. In the comment thread to the previous post, Paul Price brought up some points I had been thinking about for a while, and which I had discussed with other commenters here on previous occasions. The last two quarters have established Destiny as a viable company, and one that I think may be consistently profitable going forward. But do its future earnings justify its current price? I don't know. As I noted in the comment thread of the previous post, with an inherently high margin business, profits should grow nicely, but they are starting from a low base. At $0.305, having a feel for the stock, it looked cheap ahead of what I expected would be a positive report, so I increased my position by about 50%; at $0.46, I'm not so sure. I took advantage of the high volume today to exit at $0.45.

I still like the company's story, and I expect it will post relatively impressive numbers in its upcoming fiscal Q1 (seasonally, its strongest quarter), but I got the sense from the reaction of some Destiny longs to the guidance the company issued back in October that some of them had overly optimistic ideas about the company's growth potential next year. Some seemed to assume that the sequential growth the company had predicted from Q4 to Q1 would continue at the same clip going forward. They also seemed to ignore that Destiny's fiscal Q2 is its weakest seasonally.

I'd like to see what that Q2 looks like. Depending on those results, I may buy back into this if the price looks attractive relative to my sense of the company's forward earnings prospects.