Showing posts with label Cyclical Bull Market of 2002-2007. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cyclical Bull Market of 2002-2007. Show all posts

Saturday, December 13, 2008

John Hussman from May 2007

From one of Dr. Hussman's weekly market commentaries in May, 2007, five months before the end of the cyclical bull market that began at the end of 2002 ("How Much Do Interest Rates Affect the Fair Value of Stocks?"):

In recent months, I've used a wide variety of analytical methods (discounted cash flows, normalized earnings, price/peak earnings calculations, etc) to show that stocks are currently priced to deliver unusually poor long-term returns – stated simply, the U.S. stock market is more overvalued than at any point in history except during the late 1990's bubble.


It's worth reading the rest of that column, for Dr. Hussman's skeptical take on the Fed Model, and the conventional wisdom about the relationship between interest rates and stock valuations.