Using The Altman Z-Score to Calculate the Risk of a Company Going Bankrupt

The Altman Z-Score is a model developed in 1968 by NYU Finance professor Edward Altman to predict the likelihood of a company going bankrupt within the next two years. According to Investopedia,

[R]eal world application of the Z-Score successfully predicted 72% of corporate bankruptcies two years prior to these companies filing for Chapter 7"

In creating the Z-Score model, Professor Altman studied an initial sample of 66 firms, half of which had gone bankrupt, and looked for the balance sheet and income statement ratios that had the most predictive value. Dr. Altman settled on these five ratios¹:

T₁ = Working Capital / Total Assets
T₂ = Retained Earnings / Total Assets
T₃ = Earnings Before Interest and Taxes / Total Assets
T₄ = Market Value of Equity / Total Liabilities
T₅ = Sales/ Total Assets

He then assigned weightings to them based on their predictive values to create his model:

Z Score Bankruptcy Model:

Z = 1.2T₁ + 1.4T₂ + 3.3T₃ + .6T₄ + .999T₅

Based on this model, a Z-score below 1.8 means bankruptcy is likely within two years; a Z-score between 1.8 and 2.99 is a gray area; and a Z-score above 2.99 means there is little likelihood of bankruptcy within the next two years.

There are several free Altman Z-Score calculators available online to facilitate the use of the model. There is also a fully-automated Altman Z-Score calculator (where you just need to enter a company's symbol and the calculator does the rest) at Shortscreen.com. I used the one at Ironwood Advisory's website to calculate an Altman Z-Score for Alloy Steel International (OTC BB: AYSI.OB). The calculator gave a Z-score of 4.89, and included this commentary:

Your Z score is in the high range. This company is in good financial health and is predicted to remain solvent for the next two years. Smaller firms should note that these models are based on data from firms with assets in excess of $1,000,000². If it is believed that asset size affects Z scores, then their use may not be appropriate.

The photo above of Professor Altman comes from the CFA Institute.

¹The components and weightings of Altman's model come from Wikipedia.

²Alloy Steel's total assets are approximately $7,030,000 and its net assets are $4,393,000.

Marty Whitman Wishes He Had More Liquidity

Investopedia notes (Hat Tip: The Guru Five):

Value investor Marty Whitman, head of mutual fund firm Third Avenue Management, recently had this to say (along with Senior Research Analyst Ian Lapey) about the markets, "Third Avenue wishes it had more liquidity, because then management would have been heavy buyers of high-quality equity securities, which are now as cheap as either of us ever remember them being."

I'm sure Whitman's investors in his Third Avenue funds wish they had more liquidity too. Perhaps they would, if Whitman & Co. hadn't lost so much of their money last year. This raises a question about the role of risk management and hedging in open end mutual funds. Long-time value investors such as Marty Whitman may have the iron stomachs to handle what many value investors term "quotational losses" (or, as most other investors call them, "losses"). But one of the challenges of running an open end mutual fund is that investors with lower risk tolerances will invariably redeem their money while many of the fund's investments are down, forcing the fund manager to sell positions at a loss to meet those redemptions. Wouldn't it make sense to plan for this contingency by hedging, increasing cash levels in up years, or by some other means?

The photo above, of Whitman, comes frm this Fortune article: Five Funds for 2009.