Showing posts with label Oil. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oil. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

USEG news


Last week, U.S. Energy Corp. (Nasdaq Capital Market: USEG) announced that it had priced a secondary offering of 5 million shares at $5.25, and its stock dropped on the news, as it had on the company's initial announcement of its (larger) shelf registration in October, on fears of dilution1. The main reason USEG is raising additional capital is to fund its participation in additional Bakken wells with BEXP. After the close Monday, USEG announced the latest results from that drilling program:

U.S. Energy Corp. Announces Initial Production Rate of Approximately 3,394 BOE/D From the Williston 25-36 #1H Well


Those are the highest initial production rates so far on this drilling program.

1When I spoke to him on the day USEG announced its shelf registration, CEO Keith Larsen said he'd been getting a number of angry calls about it. I reminded him of the old Michael Milken quote, that the best time to raise capital is when you can.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

USEG News



Would have blogged about this earlier, but I got a late start today and was on the go. Shares of U.S. Energy Corp. (Nasdaq: USEG) were up 21.68% today, mainly on the announcement of positive results at the second of its Bakken wells:

U.S. Energy Corp. Announces Initial Production Rate of Approximately 1,776 BOE/D From the BCD Farms 16-21 #1H Bakken Well.


Also, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday that "market talk" suggested that Standard Steam Trust planned to raise a minimum of C$50 million in an IPO. Recall that USEG purchased 25% of the privately-held geothermal company for about $3.5 million at the end of last year. Recall also USEG CEO Keith Larsen's comments to us about Standard Steam back in August:

Keith Larsen predicted that USEG's investment in Standard Steam Trust would be a ten-bagger within two years. He noted the advantages of Geothermal versus other alternatives such as solar and wind (Geothermal's always on, so it doesn't need a back up power source), and mentioned that a Canadian geothermal company, Magma Energy recently raised over $100 million in an IPO.

Friday, October 16, 2009

First Results in from USEG's Bakken Deal



U.S. Energy Corp.'s partner Brigham Exploration reports:

AUSTIN, TX--(Marketwire - 10/16/09) - Brigham Exploration Company (NASDAQ:BEXP - News) announced that its operated Brad Olson 9-16 #1H produced approximately 2,112 barrels of oil equivalent per day from the Bakken formation during an early 24 hour flow back period.

[...]

Brigham maintains an approximate 33% working interest and 26% net revenue interest in the Brad Olson 9-16 #1H. Also participating in a non-operated role in the Brad Olson 9-16 #1H is U.S. Energy Corp. (NASDAQ:USEG) with an approximate 61% working interest and 48% net revenue interest. Brigham will back in after combined payout of the six initial wells drilled under the participation agreement with U.S. Energy for 35% of their interest in the Brad Olson 9-16 #1H well.


I was waiting for a pullback to add more USEG. If Brigham keeps drilling holes in Bakken and finding oil, that may prove difficult.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

A Conversation with USEG Management

Today I spoke with U.S. Energy Corp. (NASDAQ: USEG) CEO Keith Larsen, CFO Scott Lorimer, and Director of Investor Relations Reggie Larsen, who initiated the call. Some notes from the conversation follow.

- The Brigham Exploration (NASDAQ: BEXP) is intended to make USEG profitable as an oil company alone. CEO Keith Larsen said the company looked at about a hundred oil deals, and looked closely at ten, before picking this one.

- Estimated cumulative revenue from the first six wells (assuming oil prices stay at about ~$70 per barrel) is $1.7 million to $2 million per month, dropping off to about $1 million per month after a year of production.


- USEG is close to a financing deal that will let it borrow $15 million against its Remington Village development at about 5.5% interest. This money may be used for follow up investments in the Bakken field with BEXP. Occupancy there has drifted below 90%, but the management is working to get it back up (by allowing pets, etc.).

- Keith Larsen predicted that USEG's investment in Standard Steam Trust would be a ten-bagger within two years. He noted the advantages of Geothermal versus other alternatives such as solar and wind (Geothermal's always on, so it doesn't need a back up power source), and mentioned that a Canadian geothermal company, Magma Energy recently raised over $100 million in an IPO.

- Re the molybdenum project, Keith and Reggie said that they've been moving forward with preliminary steps on it, but have eschewed publicizing most of them to avoid stirring up the vocal radical environmental opposition. They noted that local blue collar workers have stopped by their offices looking for work, expressing support in the mine project, and asking what they could do to help make it happen. With a weak economy, opposition to the creation of numerous high-paying jobs may lose some political valence.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

USEG News



Shares of U.S. Energy Corp. (NASDAQ: USEG) rose about 32% today on about 13x average volume on the news that the company had entered into a drilling participation agreement with Brigham Exploration (NASDAQ: BEXP) in the Bakken oil field. From the release:

"We are delighted to be teaming up with one of the best and most technologically advanced operators in the Bakken oil field," stated Mark Larsen, President of U.S. Energy. "Brigham has proven itself to be one of the premier companies in the Williston Basin through the advancement of their multi-stage frac completions and their consistent improvement of production rates. We look forward to a long term relationship with Brigham and developing low cost reserves well into the future," he added.

"Our patient search for a sound investment in oil and gas has now come to light with today's announcement," stated Keith Larsen, CEO of U.S. Energy Corp. "At a time when natural gas appears to be poised for an extended period of low prices our main focus has been to expand our oil production and reserves. This agreement does just that by providing us with the potential to rapidly expand our oil production and increase our reserves by participating with an experienced operator that has a track record of lowering its finding and development costs. Furthermore, I am confident that our drilling schedule for the balance of 2009 will allow us to reach our corporate production goal of 7,000 MCFED or approximately 1,200 BOED by year end," he added.


This is a pretty large commitment by USEG -- according to the press release, USEG's "expenditures are anticipated to approximate $17.6 million for the first six initial well program." That's a little less than half of USEG's remaining cash and Treasuries, going by the company's most recent balance sheet. Judging by the relative performance of USEG and BEXP today though, without drilling down further, I'd assume this deal is on pretty favorable terms to USEG. Which would make sense, since it appears that BEXP had a more acute need for the cash than USEG had for the participation deal. I'd venture that some BEXP shareholders bought into USEG today.

I got a voice mail about this today from Reggie Larsen at USEG, but we didn't get a chacne to speak. If he and I connect tomorrow, I'll update this post accordingly. Investor relations via social media: just like in those trendy marketing books.

Monday, July 27, 2009

The Top Earning Degrees



A CNN Money article today lists the most lucrative undergraduate degrees (see the graphic above) and notes that, unsurprisingly, they all require math skills. A couple of thoughts on this. First, take a look at the first and third highest-paying degrees (petroleum and mining engineering, respectively). I've argued in the past for the economic benefits of facilitating more domestic natural resources production (e.g., here and here). One of the benefits I've noted is that natural resources extraction tends to create a lot of high-paying blue collar jobs. As this CNN article notes, it also creates high-paying professional jobs, which is another benefit.

Consider the benefits to California, for example, if it dropped its opposition to expanding offshore drilling. For one thing, it might improve the state's environment by reducing natural oil seepage. It would also generate much-needed royalty revenue for the state (in fact, the state could capture that revenue up front by issuing revenue bonds backed by those future royalty income streams). In addition, how many jobs would it create for petroleum engineers and oil rig workers? Couldn't California use the additional net tax payers and potential home buyers these workers would represent?

Another thought: given that the fifteen most lucrative college majors require math aptitude, does it make sense that the SAT has reduced the relative weight of its math section in the total SAT score from one half to one third (by adding an equal-weighed essay section to the math and verbal sections)?

Friday, July 3, 2009

Reconsidering the Role of Speculation in Commodities Markets

In a post last week ("Matt Taibbi versus Goldman Sachs"), I wrote,

Taibbi takes the hedge fund manager [Michael] Masters at his word re: the commodities spike last year. Goldman is an enormous player in commodities, but one problem with blaming the commodity spike on paper speculation, or on firms such as Goldman getting pension funds to pour money into commodity index funds, is that the prices of commodities that aren't traded on futures markets or included in commodity indexes (for example, certain metals) spiked as well.


News this week lends some support to Masters's claim. From the Financial Times ("‘Rogue broker’ blamed for oil spike"):

The startling spike in oil prices to their highest level this year on Tuesday was caused by a rogue broker who placed a massive bet in the Brent oil market, triggering almost $10m (€7m) of losses for his company.

PVM Oil Associates, the world’s largest over-the-counter oil brokerage, said on Thursday it had been the “victim of unauthorised trading”. The privately owned company said that as a result of the unauthorised trades it had been forced to close substantial volumes of futures contracts at a loss.

[...]

Oil traders in London and New York said the “unauthorised trading” explained the exceptional spike in business activity and prices in the early hours of Tuesday that some initially thought must have been caused by a geopolitical event. “Trading volumes rose overnight and prices jumped more than $2 a barrel without apparent justification,” a senior oil trader in New York said.

Prices rose in one hour from $71 to $73.5, the highest level for the year, according to Reuters data. In total, futures contracts for more than 16m barrels of oil changed hands in that hour – equivalent to double the daily production of Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producer, and far more than the traditional 500,000 barrels for that time of the day.

Traders said the broker implicated had allegedly accounted for at least half of the unusual activity, with the rest the result of others chasing the rally. Oil prices on Thursday fell to $66.5 a barrel, down almost 10 per cent from Tuesday’s peak.

The Financial Times has identified the PVM broker as Steve Perkins. PVM declined to comment and Mr Perkins could not be reached. Fellow traders said Mr Perkins was considered an experienced broker, well-regarded in the market.

This is the second episode of rogue trading in the oil market this year. In May, an oil trader at Morgan Stanley was banned by the City watchdog after he hid from his bosses potential losses on trades made under the influence of alcohol.

The incidents come as regulators are considering tougher oversight of the commodities markets after policymakers complained that speculators fuelled last year’s surge in oil and agriculture prices.

The involvement of PVM is ironic considering the company’s head, David Hufton, has been an outspoken critic of speculators in the oil market, calling some of the exchanges “electronic oil casinos”. In 2006, he said that “if futures exchanges did not exist, oil prices would be a lot lower”.

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Bright Lights, Peak Oil


Hat tip to Aaron Edelheit (with a second assist to Paul Kedrosky) for this article by Chris Turner in the Walrus magazine (which looks like a Canadian version of the Atlantic magazine before the Atlantic's recent, garish redesign): "An Inconvenient Talk: Dave Hughes's guide to the end of the fossil fuel age".

From this article, Dave Hughes, a geologist/doomsayer, appears to be Canada's answer to Matt Simmons. For some reason (perhaps in tribute to the upcoming 25th anniversary of Jay McInerney's novel Bright Lights, Big City) Chris Turner refers to himself in this article in the second person. Here's a taste:

Dave had to start out fifteen minutes earlier than the requisite ungodly hour so he could pick you up at your house. So you wouldn’t drive yourself. Save a few hydrocarbons, he’d joked. He’s a coal man, a geologist, and he always refers to the holy trinity of fossil fuels whose flames have stoked the past 200 years of industrial growth — coal, natural gas, and especially oil — in that same semi-technical way: hydrocarbons. Dave Hughes has a lot to say about hydrocarbons, mainly how there’s no possible way to keep running the engine of a modern global economy for much longer at the pace we’re burning them. Which is why you felt compelled to join him in the black chill of this late-autumn morning. Because that seems like a pretty big deal.


The uninspired photo above of Dave Hughes (that's the best backdrop they could come up with in Calgary and its environs?) accompanies the article and is credited to "Wilkosz + Way".

Saturday, May 9, 2009

Gaseous Anomaly?

This is a one year chart comparing the U.S. Natural Gas ETF (NYSE: UNG) to a Gulf Coast natural gas1 royalty trust I own a few shares of, Tidelands Royalty Trust (OTC BB: TIRTZ.OB):



And this is a three month chart comparing them:



It makes sense for the share price of the royalty trust to decline as natural gas prices have declined (the natural gas ETF closely tracks natural gas prices), but I don't know what the explanation is for the recent divergence. It is possible, of course, that the trust's distributions could rise if an increase in production outweighs the drop in natural gas prices, but I don't know of any estimates of future production increases for this trust.

1About 90% of this trust's royalties come from natural gas production, with the balance coming from oil production.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

U.S. Energy Corp. Update


On Monday, U.S. Energy Corp. (Nasdaq: USEG) filed its 10-K and released its highlights for 2008, most of which we noted here when they were announced individually. Today the company held its conference call. CEO Keith Larsen mentioned that the company's Gillette, WY real estate development was currently 95% occupied, and is generating $225k in rental revenue per month. He also noted that the local economy in Gillette remained strong1, despite the national downturn. Larsen also noted that the current low oil and natural gas prices offered promising opportunities to sign new exploration and production deals.

If the conference call was any indication, investor interest in USEG, such as it was, appears to have declined significantly. This may have been the shortest quarterly conference call I have listed to, by any company. There was exactly one question (I would have asked a question2, but I was listening via streaming audio on the Internet). Other signs of a decline in investor interest:

- The company's Investor Hub message board has four posts in the last four months, all by the moderator.

- The company's Yahoo! message board hasn't had a post since January 27th.

Based on its year-end balance sheet data, USEG is currently trading for less than its net cash.

The photo above comes for U.S. Energy Corp's website. You can read more details on the company's interests in Molybdenum, Oil & Natural Gas, Uranium, Geothermal, and its Gillette, WY real estate project on the projects section of the company's website.

1As of January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wyoming's unemployment rate was 3.7%, the lowest in the nation.

2My question would have been about what cost-cutting plans (if any) the company had in mind to get closer toward profitability from the cost side.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Water: Not the Next Oil?


A couple of years ago, articles with titles such as this one by Rohini Nilekani in Yale Global were fairly common: "Is Water the Next Oil?". Today, the pseudonymous author of the blog The Learning Diary of an Israeli Water Engineer suggests otherwise ("Worldwide water sector devalued"):

I continue thinking that the expansion of the water sector is an illusion, it is not happening and will never [...]. The water crisis is more a media event, or an eternal United Nations issue for travelling to exotic places, than a real investment opportunity. People who "bought" the concept of water as the golden investment opportunity - lost [their] money.


In previous correspondence with this water engineer/blogger, I had asked him what investment opportunities he saw in the sector. His response, in a nutshell, was that most countries that could afford water infrastructure already had it, and most of those that didn't, didn't have the money to pay for it.

The photo above accompanied the Yale Global article.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

U.S. Energy Corp. Update


A few quick updates:

- U.S. Energy Corp. (Nasdaq: USEG) filed an 8-k and issued a press release today announcing that it had retired its $16.8 million construction loan on its Remington Village real estate project. Since it was unable to get longer-term financing in the current credit environment without paying onerous fees, since it had close to $70 million in low-yielding Treasuries, USEG management figured it was better off using some of that cash to payoff the loan. The press release also added some details about the status of the Remington Village project:

``Remington Village is an excellent asset in an economically sound area that is currently generating in excess of $200,000 per month in revenue and is expected to generate $248,000 in monthly revenues upon stabilization at 95% occupancy,'' [said USEG CEO Keith Larsen]

The project was completed ahead of schedule in early December, 2008 approximately $1.1 million under budget, and is currently 88% occupied. The Remington Village complex consists of nine 24-plexes with a mix of one, two, and three bedroom units, as well as a clubhouse and leasing office.

The Gillette, Wyoming region continues to experience solid growth following record state coal production in 2008, and attracting new residents through a number of infrastructure projects currently under development including a $40 million recreation center, an $80 million hospital renovation, a $1.4 billion mine mouth-feed coal-fired power plant and a soon to be constructed $120 million coal dewatering facility north of Gillette.


- Last week, USEG announced that it had received a scheduled $1 million milestone payment from Thomson Creek as part of the option agreement Thomson Creek signed with USEG in August to pursue development of the Lucky Jack Molybdenum project.

- Earlier this month, USEG announced that it had signed an oil & gas participation agreement with a private company to acquire a 50% working interest in a prospect in Northeastern Wyoming. In this release, USEG's CEO stated that his company's goal was to increase its production from its current level of 1,700 million cubic feet equivalent per day (MCFE/D) to 7,000 MCFE/D by the end of 2009.

The photo above, of the company's Remington Village real estate development, is from the company's website

Friday, January 2, 2009

Vaalco Energy Update


Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY) ended the week up over 20%, after releasing an update on its drilling program. From the release:

HOUSTON, Dec. 31 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- VAALCO Energy, Inc. (NYSE: EGY - News) today provided an update on the new development well being drilled in the Ebouri field and the new appraisal well (North Ebouri) being drilled in the Etame block. VAALCO commenced drilling these wells in November with the jack-up rigs Adriatic 6 and Pride Cabinda, respectively, as previously announced.

For the development well in the Ebouri field, VAALCO announced that it has drilled one pilot hole to the south of the original Ebouri discovery and a second pilot hole to the northeast of the original discovery. Both of these pilot holes were successful in delineating additional Gamba sandstone reservoir above the oil water contact, thereby increasing the acreage and reserves of the Ebouri field. VAALCO is currently completing the development well horizontally on the same orientation as the second pilot hole. First oil production from this well is expected in January 2009.

The Company also announced that it drilled the North Ebouri appraisal well in the Etame block approximately 1.5 miles to the northeast of the Ebouri platform and found 21 feet of oil column, further expanding the Ebouri field. VAALCO is now planning a sidetrack to optimize the location for a potential second horizontal development well. In addition, the Company is planning two exploration wells (North Etame and South East Etame) on newly mapped structures. The wells will be drilled back to back using Pride Cabinda.

VAALCO continues to expect production at a rate sufficient to bring total production from the Etame license area to approximately 25,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd). The Etame license production areas currently produce approximately 20,000 bopd, of which VAALCO has a 28.1% working interest.

"Results from the Ebouri development drilling have exceeded expectations, and we are pleased with the initial results from our drilling program in the Etame block, with more wells to come," said Robert L. Gerry, III, Chairman and CEO of VAALCO. "We have substantially enlarged the productive acreage of the Ebouri field, thereby greatly enhancing the recoverable reserves. We look forward to continued success with our exploration program."


Last time EGY rose over $7, I sold 5% of my position and used those funds to buy more AYSI.OB. I may sell a little more at these prices, but I plan on holding most of my EGY for the long term, as I'm bullish on oil over the next five years, and I'm bullish on Vaalco's ability to increase its reserves through its drilling program. The image above, which shows Vaalco's Ebouri field, is from the company's website.

Monday, December 15, 2008

Why We Will Be Using Fossil Fuels for Decades to Come

From Vaclav Smil's essay in the American, "Moore's Curse and the Great Energy Delusion":

“Energy transitions” encompass the time that elapses between an introduction of a new primary energy source oil, nuclear electricity, wind captured by large turbines) and its rise to claiming a substantial share (20 percent to 30 percent) of the overall market, or even to becoming the single largest contributor or an absolute leader (with more than 50 percent) in national or global energy supply. The term also refers to gradual diffusion of new prime movers, devices that replaced animal and human muscles by converting primary energies into mechanical power that is used to rotate massive turbogenerators producing electricity or to propel fleets of vehicles, ships, and airplanes. There is one thing all energy transitions have in common: they are prolonged affairs that take decades to accomplish, and the greater the scale of prevailing uses and conversions the longer the substitutions will take. The second part of this statement seems to be a truism but it is ignored as often as the first part: otherwise we would not have all those unrealized predicted milestones for new energy so.

[...]

The scale of transition needed for electricity generation is perhaps best illustrated by deconstructing Al Gore’s July 2008 proposal to “re-power” America: “Today I challenge our nation to commit to producing 100 percent of our electricity from renewable energy and truly clean carbon-free sources within 10 years. This goal is achievable, affordable, and transformative.”

Let’s see. In 2007 the country had about 870 gigawatts (GW) of electricity-generating capacity in fossil-fueled and nuclear stations, the two nonrenewable forms of generation that Gore wants to replace in their entirety. On average,these thermal power stations are at work about 50 percent of the time and hence they generated about 3.8 PWh (that is, 3.8 x 1015 watt-hours) of electricity in 2007. In contrast, wind turbines work on average only about 23 percent of the time, which means that even with all the requisite new high-voltage interconnections, slightly more than two units of wind-generating capacity would be needed to replace a unit in coal, gas, oil, and nuclear plants. And even if such an enormous capacity addition—in excess of 1,000 GW—could be accomplished in a single decade (since the year 2000, actual additions in all plants have averaged less than 30 GW/year!), the financial cost would be enormous: it would mean writing off the entire fossil-fuel and nuclear generation industry, an enterprise whose power plants alone have a replacement value of at least $1.5 trillion (assuming at least $1,700/installed kW), and spending at least $2.5 trillion to build the new capacity.

But because those new plants would have to be in areas that are not currently linked with high-voltage (HV)transmission lines to major consumption centers (wind from the Great Plains to the East and West coasts,photovoltaic solar from the Southwest to the rest of the country), that proposal would also require a rewiring of the country. Limited transmission capacity to move electricity eastward and westward from what is to be the new power center in the Southwest, Texas, and the Midwest is already delaying new wind projects even as wind generates less than 1 percent of all electricity. The United States has about 165,000 miles of HV lines, and at least 40,000 additional miles of new high-capacity lines would be needed to rewire the nation, at a cost of close to $100 billion. And the costs are bound to escalate, because the regulatory approval process required before beginning a new line construction can take many years. To think that the United States can install in 10 years wind and solar generating capacity equivalent to that of thermal power plants that took nearly 60 years to construct is delusional.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

USEG Update on Drilling Program with PetroQuest


U.S. Energy Corp. (Nasdaq: USEG) released an update on its drilling program with PetroQuest Energy (NYSE: PQ) today. So far they are 1-for-2: the first drilling prospect went into production yesterday, and the second prospect was determined to be non-productive. These were the first two of a scheduled three well drilling program with PetroQuest Energy.

The image above is from U.S. Energy Corp.'s website.

Friday, October 31, 2008

A Conversation with the CEO of Vaalco Energy





The CEO of Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY), Robert L. Gerry III, was kind enough to spend a few minutes on the phone with me today. A few notes from our conversation:

- He estimates that the per-barrel cost of production of any oil produced by Vaalco's current exploration projects will be similar to the cost of the company's current production, i.e., about $10 per barrel.

- No predictions on oil prices, but given Vaalco's low cost of production, Gerry was unconcerned. "We can make money on $20 oil," he mentioned.

- Regarding the political environment in West Africa, he said the government of Gabon had been great to deal with, and Vaalco hasn't had any problems there. He noted that Gabon is one of the more stable countries in Africa (as we mentioned in a previous post, "Vaalco Energy Reports"). Vaalco currently has an office in Angola as well, in support of its exploration there.

- Gerry estimated that the company would be able to maintain daily production rates of about 25,000 barrels through '09, but noted that its FPSO1 would be about maxed-out at these levels. He mentioned that the rates to lease an FPSO currently average about $70,000 per day, but given the current correction in crude, these might start coming down at some point. If they do, he'd consider locking in low rates on one in advance.

1Floating Production, Storage, and Offloading vessel -- see the image above, which comes from Vaalco's website.

Friday, August 29, 2008

Sarah Palin, Todd Palin, and the benefits of Increasing Domestic Energy Production

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, John McCain's surprise VP pick, is in at least one sense a refreshing change from the usual sort of politician we've seen on a national ticket: someone who has done some blue collar work in her life, when she worked in commercial fishing. Her husband has gotten his hands dirty as well, both as a fisherman and while working in the oil fields for BP (NYSE: BP) on Alaska's North Slope1. According to this article in the Anchorage Daily News from last year, "Todd Palin Unique Among Nation's 5 First Husbands" (hat tip to Atlantic blogger Jeffrey Goldberg),

Until recently, he earned hourly wages as a production operator in a BP-run facility that separates oil from gas and water. Palin was making between $100,000 and $120,000 a year before he went on leave in December to make more time for his family and avoid potential conflicts of interest. London-based BP is heavily involved in the gas pipeline negotiations with his wife's administration.


That's good money for honest work, and, as I've pointed out in comments on some political blogs, it's another benefit of increasing domestic energy production: more high-paying blue collar jobs for Americans2. To his credit, Mr. Palin has encouraged young Alaskans to consider the same line of work. From the article,

Like other first spouses around the country, Palin has been asked to champion an array of causes or institutions since his wife took office in December.

His favorite is steering young Alaskans toward stable jobs in the oil and gas industry. It's a singular choice among his counterparts, whose pet issues include schools, public health, domestic violence, poverty or the arts.


That's the sort of pragmatic career advice you don't hear much of from many politicians, particularly those on the left, many of whom seem to consider access to a college education to be a panacea for economic advancement. In reality, a lot of Americans don't have the interest or aptitude for college (hence the high dropout rates), or the sorts of jobs a college degree often leads to, and there are plenty of Americans with college degrees sitting in cubicles making a third of what Palin was making for BP, or serving lattes for $8 per hour.

Regarding the politics of the Palin pick, a flurry of comments on the Atlantic blogs argue that this is an attempt by McCain to woo women voters. I doubt that. Most single women vote for Democrats, and most married women vote for Republicans; I don't see this pick changing those trends much. If anything, McCain's selection of Sarah Palin is an appeal to the sort of Reagan Democrats that Barack Obama had difficulty winning over in states like Pennsylvania. While Republican politicians generally feel compelled to be seen hunting or clearing brush or otherwise acting as if they enjoy outdoorsy activities, Sarah Palin seems to be the real deal on that score, having grown up hunting moose with her father. She and her husband ought to be able to connect more easily with rural voters than, say, Mitt Romney. Louisiana's impressive young governor, Bobby Jindal, might have contributed more in policy terms, but Palin probably gives McCain a better shot of winning in November.

1A royalty trust that pays out distributions based on production from BP's Prudhoe Bay field on the north slope is a holding of mine I've mentioned here before, BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (NYSE: BPT)

2There are other benefits, of course. Every barrel of foreign oil that we can replace with a barrel of domestic oil helps reduce our trade deficit and our fiscal deficit as well (by the increased tax and royalty revenues domestic energy production generates). No, increasing domestic energy production will not make us energy independent -- we will still need to import oil from Canada, Saudi Arabia, etc. But the more energy we can produce here, the better off we will be.

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Gas Prices, Tipping Points, and Demand Destruction


The Valero station above is where I usually fill up, since most of the time it has the lowest prices in the area. Gas prices peaked here a couple of months ago at $3.939, so to see them drop to $3.399 this week was a relief. Last year, when gas prices peaked here at around $3.159, I remember how high that seemed at the time, and that I tried to drive less. Now, after paying $3.939 per gallon two months ago, paying $3.399 seems like a deal. I don't think about gas prices much now when I decide whether or not to drive somewhere.

Thinking about this, I recalled recent columns claiming that $4 per gallon gas was the tipping point into demand destruction, so the corresponding oil price (~$149 per barrel) was the peak (some columnists went further, and claimed that oil was on its way back to $70 or less per barrel). A problem with the tipping point concept, as my reaction above demonstrates, is that the mind adjusts, so tipping points are a moving target. $4 gas may have been the tipping point that caused Americans to drive less this year, but next year that tipping point might be $4.30, and the next year $4.50, and so on.

That's just us, of course. The rest of the world has plenty of drivers, and many of them in developing and oil-producing countries have gasoline subsidies that insulate them from the effects of higher oil prices.

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

How Unusual is a 20+% Correction in Oil?



Interesting post by Tim Iacono, "How Unusual is a 'Bear Market' in Oil?":

A story in USA Today today began "Finally, investors have a bear to get excited about. Oil now is in unofficial bear market territory, with the price of a barrel of crude falling to $115.20, down 21% from its July 3 peak."

A good question to have asked prior to writing an article such as this, something that apparently doesn't occur to the new "oil bear market" enthusiasts, is whether a 20 percent decline in the price of crude oil is unusual or statistically significant in any way.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Vaalco Energy Reports



Vaalco Energy (NYSE: EGY) reported income of $13 million per share, or 22 cents per share, for the second quarter, versus 6 cents per share in 2Q07 and 3 cents per share in 1Q08 (Vaalco's 10Q).

Vaalco is a Houston-based oil & gas E&P with most of its operations in West Africa, mainly in Gabon. Gabon, according to the CIA World Factbook, is one of the more prosperous and stable African countries, thanks to the combination of plentiful natural resources plus a small (~1.5 million) population.

In his book Untapped: The Scramble for Africa's Oil (pictured above), John Ghazvinian notes some of the attractions of West African crude: it's light and sweet (so it's cheaper to refine), and it tends to be easy to transport. The oil from Vaalco's wells off the coast of Gabon, for example, is pumped to Vaalco's FPSO (Floating Production, Storage and Offloading facility), and from there it can be taken by a tanker Northwest across the Atlantic to the U.S. No perilous journey through the Persian Gulf, or through a pipeline running through some former Soviet Republic. Another advantage, at least for the oil Vaalco is currently producing from Gabon, is low production costs. Costs averaged under $10 per barrel over the last quarter.

Vaalco has come down from its recent 52-week high of $8.99, as oil prices have declined, and at today's closing price of $5.69, it has a market cap of $336 million with about $100 million in net cash. Backing out that cash, it currently trades with an enterprise value about 7x its trailing twelve months earnings and about 6x an analyst's estimate of its '09 earnings. The company also has an exploration program expected to start this fall that could significantly increase its production and reserves.