- Invest in commodities directly (his preferred method). Rogers created his own broad-based commodity index which has ETNs linked to it, (e.g., RJI).
- Invest in stocks in regions that are benefiting from the secular bull market in commodities.
- Invest in real estate in regions that are benefiting from the secular bull market in commodities.
There seems to be some overlap between the range-bound market in stocks that you argue started in 2000 and the secular bull market in commodities that Jim Rogers says started in 1999. Do you agree with Rogers that we are in a secular bull market for commodities? If so, is this just a coincidence that it’s happening during a secular range-bound market in stocks, or do the two normally go together? The 1970s was a time of rising commodity prices as well, and that decade was also part of the previous range-bound market in stocks, as you pointed out in Active Value Investing [Vitaliy's recently published book].
To keep this post from getting too long, I'll continue it starting with Katsenelson's response in Part II.
*In his book Hot Commodities, Rogers cautions that during a secular bull market in commodities, different commodities will peak in price at different times. For example, he notes that, although the last secular bull market in commodities didn't end until 1982, the price of sugar peaked in 1974.