Tuesday, April 28, 2009
First Trust's First Quarter GDP Estimate
In their Forbes column today ("Brace Yourselves for First-Quarter GDP") Brian S. Wesbury and Robert Stein of First Trust Advisers estimate that Q1 GDP contracted at a 4.2% annual rate (preliminary Q1 GDP data will be released tomorrow). They see the uptick in consumer spending and draw down in inventories in the first quarter as good signs going forward, and predict that GDP will be flat in Q2 and will grow at a 3% annual rate in Q3.
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According to the Commerce Department, 1Q GDP declined at a 6.1% annual rate, though Wesbury and Stein were probably encouraged by the uptick and consumer spending and steep draw down in inventories.
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