Below is a presentation of Vitaliy Katsenelson's secular range-bound market thesis, updated as of this month (longtime readers may recall I linked to an earlier version of this last year). It's worth taking a few minutes to scroll through this. I think Katsenelson is right in his diagnosis, and his prescriptions (slide 29) seem reasonable, for the most part, but for me the raise a question: why be net long at all, if we are in a secular bear or range-bound market? Why not be market-neutral1 or even net short?
1I'm adding this footnote on 12/30/09. After I wrote the post above, I found a professional investor who had the same idea ten years ago, and has produced some impressive returns since then: Marc Mayor of Inside ALPHA. I found out about Mayor when he joined Short Screen as a premium member earlier this month.