A fellow shareholder in Alloy Steel had mentioned another holding of his to me, a development stage biotech company, so I asked Y., a microbiologist/biotechnologist, his opinion of it. After offering his assessment of the company, Y. added this cautionary note,
I'm a pretty bad judge of stocks, particularly in the biology realm. a few years ago, I bought some shares in Affymetrix (AFFX) because they had the best microarray platform hands-down, and were about to acquire a big new customer (Merck). Then they made some bad business moves and got way behind the up-and-coming tech (next-generation sequencing, NGS). Their main competitor, Illumina (ILMN), with a much inferior microarray platform, did everything else better, and is now the biggest NGS company, I think. If you compare their stocks over the last few years, it's quite disparate.